The Shape of Targeting

Start with the numbers, because almost everything people believe about this is wrong in a specific, correctable way. In 2025 the Federal Trade Commission received 3 million fraud reports and $15.9 billion in reported losses. The 2024 median loss was $497 — a figure dragged upward by a small number of catastrophic cases. The FBI's 2025 Internet Crime Report recorded nearly $21 billion in losses and 1,008,597 complaints.

Now the correction. Email generated the most fraud reports (371,651) but only 11% involved a loss; phone calls produced fewer reports and the highest median loss, $1,500. A voice. The older, slower channel produced the highest median loss, because it reaches people with assets and moves slowly enough to build trust.

The second correction concerns age. Adults in their twenties reported losing money in 44% of their fraud contacts; adults aged 70 to 79, 24%. But the median loss reverses — $1,000 for ages 70 to 79 and $1,650 for 80 and over, against $417 for people in their twenties. Younger people are defrauded successfully more often; older people are defrauded harder. Both facts are true, and a program built on only the second leaves out most victims.

Hold the pattern rather than the totals. Volume and severity are separate axes. A defense budgeted by report count is spent in the wrong place, and a warning aimed only at the elderly misses the people who are actually clicking.