What to Do
Generate the full set before testing any of it, including the innocent explanation, the coincidence, the mistake, and the deception. Build the matrix. Score evidence by how far it is inconsistent with each hypothesis, not by how well it fits your favorite.
How It Fails
Satisficing: stopping at the first explanation that covers the facts. A single dominant hypothesis is how the 1973 “conception” survived every warning that contradicted it.
Check
- At least three hypotheses, one of them benign
- Deception is on the list as a hypothesis
- Evidence is scored for inconsistency, not support
- Non-diagnostic evidence is struck from the matrix